The outcome of the election, which will have a bearing on employment-based immigration policies-especially on H-1B and L-1 visas, considered the lifeblood of IT services companies becomes very critical. According to a report by JM Financial, in the event of a comeback by Donald Trump. The new administration is expected to reiterate its stringent immigration policies. This would mean a higher denial rate for H-1B and L-1 visas, necessary for hiring skilled foreign labor.
During Trump’s first term, the denial rate of H-1B visas rose from 4% to 17%. While L-1 visa denials increased from 12% to 28%. According to the report, those trends could continue if Trump is re-elected. And that will hurt IT companies dependent on those visas to bring in expert talent from abroad. His executive order “Buy American, Hire American” placed greater restrictions on H-1B visas. And future policy could be similar to past restrictions.
However, it is no longer the same as during Trump’s first term when many IT companies have significantly lowered their dependency on H-1B visas over the last couple of years. According to estimates, the share of visa-dependent employees has fallen from 65% to less than 50%. A factor helping to blunt the impact of increased denial rates for firms as they employ more local talent in the US.
The courts shot down Trump’s previous efforts to raise the minimum wage level for H-1B workers. If he ever makes a comeback, those policies may again see the light of day. And could further restrict the avenues for using H-1B visas available to some employers. As it is, H-1B wages are already 25-35% above the average US wages. Thereby making allegations of wage suppression less convincing.
The report says a Kamala Harris presidency will likely maintain the “status quo” in IT immigration policies. Trump and Harris might come under pressure to reform immigration laws due to bipartisan efforts in both Houses. However, its long-term implications for Indian IT services firms could be marginal.
ANI