The fear of China’s takeover of Taiwan is being closely watched continuously. During the Cold War, the U.S. was apprehensive of communism spreading to Asia. It resulted in the Americans’ involvement in conflicts like the Vietnam War. Today, too, the same apprehension is being expressed about China taking control over Taiwan to alter significantly the regional power balance.
The strategic value of Taiwan can be gauged by the fact that it represents a critical node in the First Island Chain, reaching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines, reaching toward Indonesia. This chain forms a barrier of vital importance, which limits the easy access of the PLA to the Western Pacific. If Taiwan were to ever come under Chinese control, the PLA would finally gain direct access to the Pacific, bypassing the far less secure Second Island Chain, which extends from Japan’s volcanic eastern isles down to New Guinea.
According to a report from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy it was stated “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat from Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat,” authors Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson are at pains to explain the very grave consequences of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
It said that the event could unleash unprecedented economic shockwaves, possibly leading to the most profound economic upheavals since over a century ago. This would significantly impact the global semiconductor industry—a business in which Taiwan features large. This could cause worse effects than those of the COVID-19 pandemic in its heyday, felt not only in the tech sector but also in societal functions.
It makes four critical findings:
- Economic and Technological Fallout: A forced annexation of Taiwan would grossly disrupt the global supply chain, particularly that of semiconductors. In that reference, China shall be in power, and that might mean massive economic and technological setbacks to the West, rivaling World War II.
- Strategic and Military Implications: If Taiwan is lost, it will cause a severe blow to U.S. credibility in the Indo-Pacific, which will contribute to rises in insecurity and deprivation in the economic field and hurt U.S. alliance relationships. More importantly, Chinese regional hegemonism will be further strengthened at the expense of the U.S. and its allies, who must rethink their security strategy to avoid an increase in regional tension.
- Military Capacity and Stability in the Region: A defeated Taiwan would allow China access to sensitive military technology and vital sea and air routes, therefore possibly disturbing American military operations and regional defense strategies. This could very well force Japan and South Korea to reassess their defense postures, even developing nuclear capabilities.
- Nuclear proliferation risks: The report then goes on to caution that the Chinese takeover could fuel proliferation from a loss of confidence by Asian allies in U.S. security guarantees, further enhancing global competition between nuclear superpowers and leading other countries to increase or initiate the development of their nuclear arsenal.
It also says that Taiwan has come to symbolize democratic freedom in a region that has increasingly been dominated by authoritarian regimes. The CCP’s desire to annex Taiwan is motivated by a political desire, as well as the strategic advantage it would give.
It is stated in INDOPACOM that if China annexed Taiwan, this would shift the balance of power in the 21st century with far-reaching global repercussions. The report calls for U.S. policymakers to build more deterrence and plan for scenarios that may affect American and allied interests.
The Baker Institute, in its conclusion, warns that the main purpose is to forestall any coercive annexation of Taiwan by China, hence stressing the very big and real risks involved.
ANI
